Primary Election So Far

March 23, 2016

The Election Primary results so far: In the four caucus states where both parties have caucused, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz have won them all. Those caucus states are Kansas, Maine, Idaho, and Utah.

Results in voting primaries where both parties have voted, the popular vote is:

election-2016Hillary Clinton….8,728,430
Donald Trump…..7,496,166
Bernie Sanders…6,033,140
Ted Cruz………..5,147,202
John Kasich……..2,699,438

Marco Rubio dropped out. He gathered 3,168,147 votes but did not win or come in second in any primaries.

The result of popular voting in the twenty states where both parties have voted is as follows:

Hillary Clinton……9 wins; 6 seconds
Donald Trump…….5 wins;  9 seconds
Bernie Sanders…..4 wins;  3 seconds
Ted Cruz…………..1 win;   2 seconds
John Kasich……….1 win;    0 second

These popular vote win totals don’t include the four victories in caucus states, which both Sanders and Cruz won in their respective parties. It’s not clear who took the most popular votes in those caucus states, because the popular votes aren’t usually published. All that can be said for certain: Bernie Sanders has won 4 for 4 in Democratic caucus states. Ted Cruz’s results in GOP caucus states are exactly the same.

Four of the next five Democratic primaries will be caucuses, where Bernie has yet to lose a single contest to Hillary. During the next few weeks we will be hearing about how well Sanders is doing as he wins (presumably) these caucus states. The Republicans won’t be caucusing as much from now on—and many of their primaries will be winner-take-all; winner-take-all primary elections are something the Democrats don’t do.

So the narrative in the media during the next month will be how well Sanders is doing; will he catch Hillary? The narrative about Trump will be: what an awesome juggernaut this Batman from Gotham City has become; can he save us from the dreaded terrorists who hide under every bed in our beloved country? Will Trump rise in triumph to save us from all the bad people?

Here are some worrying statistics, depending on your point of view. The GOP popular vote turn-out is running 25% higher than the Democrat’s. Of the 33 million-plus votes cast thus far, Hillary Clinton has received 26%; Donald Trump, 22.5%. The bottom-line is this: a large majority of GOP voters are casting their ballots against Trump.  

In a general election between the two candidates, some of the GOP primary voters who don’t like Trump are going to have to break for Clinton in order for her to win the general election. Trump’s high negatives in recent polls, if they continue, will make her win inevitable. Based on the current trends in the electorate, if Sander’s voters go to Clinton and 10% of GOP voters stay home (or if 5% cross-over to vote for Hillary), she will win the popular vote in the general election.

What is going to happen is this: Trump and Clinton will win their party nominations (barring any violence of the kind that plagued our elections in 1968), and Hillary Clinton will go on to win the election in one of the most lop-sided landslides since the Goldwater debacle in 1964. The extent of the landslide will depend on how many GOP voters stay home or cross-over to vote for Hillary. If the cross-over exceeds 10%, it’s possible she will carry all but a handful of states. If it exceeds 15%, she might very well carry every state.

History has a way of repeating itself. We have seen this movie before, but never with a highly qualified female candidate opposing a thrice-married seventy-year old businessman with no political experience. The election is going to get interesting.

Billy Lee

EDITORS NOTE: (2-2-2017)  Hillary won the popular contest by nearly three million votes. She carried 88 of the 100 most populated voting districts. Only one person ever received more votes in an American election: Barack Obama.

Hillary lost the popular vote in three traditionally Democrat-voting states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—by less than one-hundred-thousand votes out of thirteen-million total votes cast. The margin was tiny—about one-half percentage point.

The GOP successfully stopped or prevented recounts and vote audits in all three states. Had the recounts and audits gone forward, The Editorial Board believes Clinton would have carried the three states; she would have won the Electoral College and become our first female president.

Despite serious statistical anomalies, Russian meddling, systemic voter suppression, and an unusually heavy influx of volunteer evangelical poll workers, the Republican guardians of our democracy saw no reason to make sure we got the vote right.

We wonder how they would have behaved had the shoe been on the other foot. Based on their history during the Al Gore debacle in Florida in 2000, we believe that some of their extremist followers were prepared to start an armed and violent revolution.

Civil war is the worst possible outcome, if we judge by the carnage of the last one. Barring a financial collapse or a world war, maybe Hillary losing was the best outcome for our beloved country—even if someday we learn that thugs in dark suits and shiny shoes really did steal our election.

Time and God will provide the answer.