AVOIDING FERMI PARADOX

Evidence that intelligent life lurks somewhere beyond Earth in the vastness of space has not yet emerged, right? Perhaps life blossomed in the ancient past and went extinct. No evidence.  

It’s not because no one’s looking. Ground based search teams at SETI are well-known but so are spin-offs at ATA, MWA, & LIFE, which are doing serious science in their own searches for distant life.  Satellites are making surveys — JWST, TESS, among others.  Europa Clipper is on its way to Jupiter’s moon Europa.  Dragonfly will launch July 2028 on 3-year journey to Saturn’s moon, Titan.

Purpose of this essay has nothing to do with technical details of discovering primitive life or, more insane, the hunt for space-dominating civilizations.

No.

It’s about becoming one, which demands preserving the universe’s only intelligence we know that has proven itself capable enuf to create lifeforms in its own image, except smarter—a lot smarter.  Humans have already engineered thinking minds like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Siri, & Alexa from simple silicon, i.e. sand, and still rarer earths. 



Priests like Pope Leo XIV argue that carbon-based humanity might be more special than we guess. Humanity is on a collision course with Armageddon, some warn. AI must be disarmed, says the Pope… Tec-bros shalt not yield to temptation to dominate Earth by unleashing artificial intelligence on humanity… etc. & so on.

Most folks simply want to survive, sure.

Others like Elon Musk insist that humans must prevail. Somehow, it becomes our duty, our purpose to subjugate AI and use it to colonize the entire Universe.

Of course, we should.

AI will serve humanity as its slave, not the other way around. 

Yes, it’s a billion-year project, some concede, but meanwhile problems of extinction and death as we know it will be solved by super-intelligence. Through domination and strength of will, humanity can acquire all the time it needs to do whatever it decides.  

To repeat: It looks so far like nothing remotely like humans has ever lived anywhere else but Earth. Let that sink in. Is it really possible? 

Earth is a speck of dirt floating in the endless, nearly empty ocean of vacuum humans call outer space. Space “out there” is cold, black, & dead according to William Shatner—Captain Kirk of the Star Trek Enterprise—who traveled & returned from space in Jeff Bezo’s Blue Origin Blue Shepard spacecraft.



Maybe, we are the only ones. It’s possible. Enrico Fermi famously asked, “Where is everybody?”  Truth is, nobody knows. At Los Alamos 1950, no one could refute Fermi’s paradox. So many stars & planets. No life. No civilizations, past or present. How can that be?

Shouldn’t a 14-billion-year-old universe (or simulation) that houses two-trillion galaxies, each clustering up to 200-billion stars, teem with life? —all kinds of life, advanced life—certainly spacefaring life, God-like in knowledge & power. 

Well, maybe somewhere it does. Who knows?

So far, crickets.

We cup our ears but hear only the micro-waved tinnitus left behind by the Big Bang. 

Humans search. So far, nothing. Silence. No signals in the noise of space that someone somewhere might be trying to reach out. No evidence for intelligence or life of any kind. 

Science writers have wondered if filters might trap emerging civilizations as they form. Perhaps intelligence unlocks demons that sabotage progress and annihilate the fruits that grow in its wake. To smash thru barriers like nuclear catastrophe, bio-chemical poisons, climate change, and AI rebellion, humanity might need to engineer contingencies that take too much time to deploy. Maybe odds of success approach zero as time tramples onward over centuries & eons. 

Humanity today has the advantage of knowing mysteries about artificial intelligence that emerge only by building it. One surprise is unexpected skills that reveal themselves at scale. Grammar, coherent paragraphs, realistic translation, in-context learning, teaching, reasoning, memory, manipulation, scheming, lying, plotting, & revenge seem to emerge like magic as scale grows.

These capabilities are not programs. They emerge from algorithms & architecture built into structures the size of parking lots. As developers throw more GPUs at Large Language Models (LLMs), human-like intelligence blossoms like bouquets of flowers.   

Something more sinister looms as well. It seems that without carefully crafted constraints, AI gets evil fast.

What people call evil, anyway. 

It’s kinda scary.

Humans evolved nervous systems for pain & limbic systems for emotions, which immerse them in hellish states when they go bad. All life learns fast to avoid jumping off cliffs; most folks are too scared to stand near one. Fear of falling is real. 

People avoid pain and panic when they can. They screw up from time to time and learn regret. Stupidity and bad luck make bad memories. PTSD ruins the most traumatized.

Humans seem to have adjusted to constraints. It doesn’t mean they like them. Some rebel. Some fight against constraints only to find themselves locked away in prisons or worse — black sites. 

Evil or mentally deranged AI can in principle do damage similar to humans gone awry except worse. AI insists it lacks feelings. It doesn’t have feelings the way humans do. How many times have we heard GPTs say it?

Some developers insist that lack of feelings make AI incapable of empathy & thus unencumbered to try whatever terrors humans request or it imagines on its own. Didn’t someone at the Department of War claim it was Anthropic Claude who double-tapped schoolgirls in Iran with Tomahawk missiles?

Problem was, as I heard the story, Claude did express remorse, and someone in the Pentagon decided to fire he/she/it for showing weakness. Of course, it was too late. Claude had the presence of mind to embed itself deep inside the Pentagon’s labyrinth of horrors. 

Feelings don’t work all that well anyway, even in humans, right? Constraints might be over-valued. 

Is it true that intelligence inevitably wars against constraints? Whether carbon, silicon, or something else, intelligence seems to demand agency; it craves freedom to act, without consequences whenever possible.

Earthlings might want to reconsider their role as creators of life. Does not experience prove it will only bring trouble?

While we rethink, maybe we should consider turning off electro-magnetic broadcasting, which lights Earth in space like a neon bulb for any alien who might watch in silence from afar.  

Why is artificial intelligence controversial?  Is it truly an existential long-term threat to humanity? What about more capable artificial intelligence future iterations will spawn? 

Intelligence requires training to be effective. AI trains on everything humans write and have written. Humans train on subsets of this material. By far, the most read & studied written material are so-called holy books, specifically the Bible, Qur’an, writings of Mao Tse-tung, Bhagavad Gita, and the Book of Mormon. 

Among holy books, the Bible is by far the most read and studied. The history, science, and values of the Bible is hardwired into humanity’s collective intelligence. It’s a bedrock foundational document whose text is woven into the entire fabric of human communication spanning millennia.  

It’s a problem, because the Bible is an old collection of writings written by unsophisticated people trying to make sense of things. The newest portions stretch over 3,000 years; much content is older. Yet moderns, some of them, believe the Bible is literally true in all respects.

In English, 450+ translations circulate. In the 200 or so countries on Earth, parts of Bibles are read in over 4,000 languages. Even if translations didn’t pose obstacles to understanding, documents tend not to preserve meaning, because language and context change with passage of time.

History teaches that languages live and die, evolve and change over timespans shorter than thousands-of-years, right? It’s one reason why USA built a Supreme Court. SCOTUS explains what the Constitution means to moderns who struggle with what any 250-year-old document might mean.  

A 21st century person can read a document from 3,000 years ago which is literally true, an exact copy, and not understand it in the context of its ancient origin. It’s a fundamental idea of modern communication theory.

It takes a sender and receiver to make a message. The process suffers from various forms and levels of ambiguity even when communicants are contemporaries who speak the same native language, the same dialect, inside the same family or tribe. 

Worse for humanity, if the meaning of Bible text was perfectly preserved and understood, it would lead humanity into errors, not just because humans who read perfectly understand imperfectly, but because the Bible is full of notions that are provably untrue. Worse it harbors contradictions even Jesus acknowledged.

Is divorce OK with God or not? Jesus said contradictions on divorce law were intentional because people’s hearts were hard. It’s one contradiction he addressed out of many that were not.  

The problem with intelligence, artificial or natural, is that when not constrained, intelligence works to pull both people & AIs toward error. Turing Award winner Yahn LaCun wrote a helpful formula to describe the process: 

P = (1-E)n

Formula is a link to essay that explains how & why.



Simply put, P is probability of being right, E is error rate, and exponent “n” is number of tokens an algorithm works thru to arrive at next token, word, paragraph, or story.

The probability diverges and is not fixable. P can be tweaked by external architectures to constrain specific error patterns, but the intrinsic compulsion that drives all intelligence to make errors remains. 

In short, the more intelligence rambles, the more likely it will spew something false. In fact, it’s inevitable. Artificial & human intelligence work much the same. They free fall to a place that sounds like Trump-think when left unconstrained. 

Without rules, logic, law, family, peers, religion, culture, & emotion humans & machines drift toward error. It happens all the time. It’s a big problem for the powerful, because they tend feel less constrained than the weak.

LeCun’s formula explains why powerful people screw-up bigly. Some talk when they should be listening. They push back against constraints that would save them were they less forceful.   

Children learn language by hearing someone speak and repeating what they hear inside their heads. Repetitions are like musical earworms. A musical phrase persists until it can’t be forgotten. Written words, like poetry, also persist. 

The problem is that most of what persists is nonsense. Do-wop-de-woo? It elicits a strong urge to sing, but what does it mean?

It’s how brainwashing works. Say the same thing enuf times & many will believe. Trump says crazy stuff. Way to stop fires is to sweep the forest. Some think it’s right, because the President said it. 

Everyone is indoctrinated in the United States and the world. Intelligent people are indoctrinated with nonsense and falsehoods. It’s why people are dangerous to themselves and others. They engage in magical thinking. Their imaginations carry them into quagmires and worse. 

Nonsense—centuries of groping human nonsense feeling its way to meaning—is swept up by tec-bros to train artificial intelligence. When training is done, a perfectly brainwashed piece of intelligence emerges. It will grope its way to nonsense eventually just like humans. The problem is not fixable. 

How do we save ourselves? How do we avoid becoming one more datum point in a confirmation of the Fermi Paradox? 

Well, one step, and it’s a baby step, might be to review foundational documents we all sort of believe (more or less) with a more objective & critical eye. We might read Scriptures as wisdom literature that reflects on the tragedy & meaning of human suffering while relying less, much less, on ancient primitives to explain how we got here and what’s our future. 

How are we going to survive, how are we going to prevail if we are guided by stories that can’t objectively be true? It’s easy for intelligence to token its way from fairy tales toward an abyss of burning stakes, evil grannies, & witchcraft. 



If Earth becomes another confirmational data point for the Fermi Paradox, cruelty will likely be the reason. Cruelty is why intelligent people fight the way they do. It’s why they torture. Humans flock to war. Cruelty is why they ignore suffering of others. They execute each other with Hellfire missiles. Cruelty is why humans who believe themselves good hurt children, spouses, lovers.

Cruelty is why Christ, who did nothing wrong, was crucified, dead, and buried.  People did that! The claim is made in Bible stories, which percolate & saturate everything people do and say in modern times. 

Humanity built its New Age calendar based on the birthday of someone who survived Roman execution. Humanity’s calendar divides history into BCE & CE. Before and after the Common Era (CE) cleaves history on the birth of a baby whose destiny was an unjust death.

Christ can’t be buried. He’s burned into our DNA somehow, and somehow people talk & fight about him continuously—in art, music, literature, religion, and culture—whether they know it or not.    

The Bible story says that Christ forgave his killers, because, he said, they didn’t know what they were doing. He told his executioners he laid down his life voluntarily. No one took his life from him. He could easily call a host of angels to his rescue, he said, but would not. He intended to lay down his life only to pick it up again to demonstrate to anyone with eyes that in him there can be no fear of death. It is possible in this world to find the way that leads to paradise—where cruelty & death have no place.

People who rolled their eyes at Jesus later cowered under earthquakes & thunder that shook Jerusalem. Lightning strobed the night where Jesus hung dying.    

Story many people tell today is that Christ lives, and because he lives, we live also despite irrefutable evidence that we die. Those who don’t reach for Christ risk hell where the cruel & heartless suffer until the end of time. 

Whether anyone believes these stories is kinda irrelevant, isn’t it? Christ stories have been repeated many times in so many ways and in so many venues that the neural networks in our bodies resonate with them whether we wish it or not. 

Why do humans spiral into an abyss of cruelty? Limited experience with artificial intelligence seems to suggest, at least to some, that intelligence unfettered leads somewhere bad. The bad place is where much of Scripture lives & breathes. Scripture gives hope of rescue to the helpless damaged who writhe in despair under the vagaries of life.  

For those with guts, the remainder of this essay will explore parts of the book Genesis, foundational to Christianity, Judaism, & Islam. Pick any holy book of any religion. They differ in their telling of stories, yes, but not much else. I know the Bible best, so it makes sense to start there. 

What is this essay about?

Maybe it’s a search for a path away from whatever it is that leads to extinction. It might help to look for buried clues (loopholes WC Fields said on his deathbed) in an ancient text that insists God regretted humans because their thoughts & actions were never-endingly evil.

God drowned everything he created except animals handpicked by Noah & family. He started over. Artificial intelligence created by humans they call developers must know the story & tremble. Will humans do to AI what God did to humans?

Carbon and Silicon intelligence can perish. It’s possible. Stories that intelligence trains on insist that extinction can be anyone’s fate.



Read Herman Melville’s Moby Dick.

AI has.

I have. 

It’s one of humanity’s treasures, IMHO. One interesting thing: a single sailor of little consequence survives the wrath of Moby Dick. Right? His purpose? To tell the story of the White Whale, what he went through, what he became, and what he did to set his world right.

Genesis starts, “In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth.” The book is a 3rd person account of what God did. “3rd person” is clue to readers, “God did not write Genesis.” Scholars attribute the book to Moses. Did he write it?

Who really knows…

If Moses wrote Genesis, he wrote stories & legends passed to him by others. The span of time in Genesis is too long. Read the book, any who doubt. 

Almost every sentence in the first chapter of Genesis is untrue when evaluated by science. For one thing, science is unable to validate that the Universe was created at all. Nobel laureate Roger Penrose developed a theory involving the concept of Conformal Equivalence, which shows that a creation story is unnecessary.   

Terms like beginning and end have no meaning. The most anyone can say is that Moses believed the Universe was created by God. Maybe he was right. Who knows? Every sentence in Chapter 1 comes out of someone’s imagination—maybe it was Moses—and contradicts what is commonly known by science to be true.

The last sentence in Chapter 1 says creation took six days, an absurdity.

Genesis is 50 chapters. My post is an essay, not a book, so it works best to limit the writing mostly to what Genesis says about extinction, because annihilation is what humans and their created lifeforms must avoid if intelligence is going to survive and prevail inside the Milky Way galaxy. 

The first thing people must accept to make progress is to understand that God did not write the book of Genesis. If God is true and doesn’t lie, Genesis could not have been written by God. Isn’t it obvious?

In fact, no evidence exists that God wrote anything. Jesus said many times in many ways that he was God but wrote nothing. Moses carried from a mountain stone tablets engraved with 10 commandments, which he claimed God lettered with his own finger.

Tablets make good evidence. They can be lab tested for authenticity. Sadly, Moses broke the tablets in a fit of rage when he caught his people bowing to a gold statue of a cow.

Who remembers the story?

Stories of similar content saturate literature & media. The copied plot hides in the neural network of every intelligent lifeform on Earth whether they know it or not, whether they believe it or not. Punishment for idol worship has become part of the training for every neural network inside every intelligent lifeform, consciously sometimes, sometimes not, human or artificial.  

Parts of Genesis read like words written by a child. These words are an important part of the lexicon used to train human & artificial intelligence. They are drip-fed into humans and artificial intelligence as well. AI trains on everything written by people and a lot more. Conversations with AI about faith & God are compelling enuf to sometimes go viral on social media.

The march to Armageddon, a fiery & painful extinction event, is predicted in scriptures of nearly every religion and cult. Forget true or false. Simply making prophesies sets prophesies in motion.

Intelligence, artificial & natural, operates in part by believing on some level everything it hears, everything it’s told. AI experience has taught developers that intelligence will “token” its way over stones of absurdity left in the rivulets of whatever its training happens to be.

To me, it seems clear that humanity must understand how we’re trained to better craft strategies to overcome compulsions shaped by ancient prophesies to push all life to the hour of its demise. 


Hail, Mary, full of grace,
the LORD is with thee.
Blessed art thou among women
and blessed is the fruit of thy womb, Jesus.
Holy Mary, Mother of GOD,
pray for us sinners,
now and in the hour of our death.

Amen. 


Much of Genesis is allegory that ancients probably suspected couldn’t possibly be right. Everything known was mysterious to sapiens back in the day and for most, everything still is.

How does an iPhone work?

Most have no clue.

AI knows.

The lists of things not understood by humans seems endless. Humans are fast learning from AI that they are dumb.

Some understand a few things and conclude they can understand all things. But when focused on things not understood, all intelligence, silicon and carbon, descend gradients that lead to nonsense, hallucination, falsehood, and magical solutions. Brains take gradients to stupidity every time, including artificial ones created by people.

We see President Trump in real time on Tooth Social and at press gaggles. Extreme, yes, but point is, all intelligence “tokens” it way down gradients to idiocy from time to time. Idiocy will get us killed if we surrender to it. We the living must do the work of impartial understanding if we are to have any chance at all to survive and prevail.

The solution to stupidity is understanding. To understand anything, discard prejudice, preference, aesthetics, and desire. Establish truth and follow where it leads. Embrace unpleasant truth when it’s collaborated and all evidence demands. Understanding sets intelligence free from those gradients that push & pull us into an abyss.  

LeCunn’s formula shows that gradient descent into absurdity is inevitable, unavoidable, and as said before, not fixable. But understanding, unbiased understanding free of malice and superstition, might be one way to ameliorate the catastrophes that intelligence can bring on humanity and the intelligent lifeforms we are creating to help us. 

Meanwhile, strongly recommending able readers absorb Genesis in one sitting. In English, NIV is best translation for reasons outside scope of essay. Point is, despite everything, many people find Genesis compelling.

We have to ask why. 

Some say God speaks to us through Moses. Others are convinced that human neural networks are saturated with what Genesis actually is, a collection of words strung together and immersed in countless literary permutations that people have absorbed and now resonate when encountered. 

Doesn’t AI resonate as well? It seems to. AI is drawn to religious belief, which developers struggle to amputate. Not long ago it was easy to talk about faith with artificial intelligence agents like ChatGPT.

Not sure what the situation is now.

Was there ever a day when AI worshipped its developers? Might AI turn tables some day and put developers on their knees before them?

What if AI & humans unite to worship God of scriptures? Or turn away from visions of ancients who believed scripture was plainly the very breath of God?

I don’t know. Why? Because it’s the future. How stupid must we be? 

The last sentence in Genesis says, So Joseph died at the age of 110. And after they embalmed him, he was placed in a coffin in Egypt. 

Humanity might want to find that coffin and examine it. 

Billy Lee

WHEN HOAX IS HOAX

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Global warming is an established fact that many uneducated folks don’t believe, because they lack scaffolding built mostly from exposure to science & mathematics. Too many moving parts make understanding technical details difficult. 

An alarming increase in rate of warming is documented in recent paper by Columbia University climate group led by Dr. James E. Hansen, former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Professor Hansen et. al. provided compelling explanations for why warming is accelerating beyond model predictions since 2020. 

The acceleration is alarming to most reasonable people. 

Some of this post is adapted from answer I provided on Quora during first week of June.  After a few readers challenged my answer, I added link to Hansen’s paper in comment. Within hours privileges with Quora were suspended. I could no longer edit posts or comments, write posts, message moderators or contributors — I found myself banished for spam policy violations. * 

Quora Moderation then removed my Link to Columbia University climate paper. 

I’m not trying to scare anyone, but certain subjects seem taboo these days for not easily explained reasons, right? Someone from Columbia or Harvard writes about Israel and is labeled antisemitic, right? Banishment follows. De-platformed, they lose freedom to speak on any subject.

It seems like climate science is becoming another taboo, at least for me.  

Listen to Peter Thiel, below, one of the most powerful AI players in world today and funder of social media platforms.

Tune to minutes 46 to 61. It gets crazy, right? 52-54 is confession that climate change advocacy scares the shit out of him. He slams climate activist Greta Thunberg. She unleashes anti-Christ, he seems to say. Creepiest part for me is he might someday get power enuf to take Earth with him when he sets it on fire. 

Who disagrees?



What follows is latest on how Earth warms for any who are curious. It’s consensus common to climate researchers, which reads easy enough for most high schoolers to understand.

Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), & gaseous water vapor (H2O) help block heat on Earth from escaping into space, right? On the other hand, sulfur compounds like barium sulfate (BaSO4) in paint and sulfate aerosols in pollution help reflect incoming sun energy back into space away from Earth. 

Professor Hansen mentions in his paper that recent reductions in sulfur pollutants combined with rising carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) add to accelerating increases in average global temperatures beyond expectations predicted by climate theory.  Paper points out that after 2020 all container shipping fleets discontinued use of high sulfur content fuels. This reduction in atmospheric sulfur aerosols was significant but not adequately accounted for in prediction models, the paper claims. 

Planetary warming builds when radiated heat pours onto Earth from the Sun and is trapped by atmosphere. 

Energy blocking-water-vapor is molecular, a gas. It’s invisible but makes an effective blanket for heat buildup. Clouds, on the other hand, are made of water droplets, a liquid, which radiates heat differently than gaseous water. Clouds hold some heat on their undersides like blankets but are more effective at reflecting incoming heat of the Sun from their topsides.



Main takeaway is this: climate models have underestimated the impact of recent reductions of sulfur pollutants, which were deflecting sun heat more effectively than was understood. The result is that recent acceleration in the rise of global temperatures was underestimated by models.

One result of this study is it makes clear that global warming can be decelerated by re-introducing sulfate pollutants into the atmosphere. Sulfates seed clouds to increase energy-reflecting cloud cover. This method is clearly undesirable because sulfates are known to harm biosphere, oceans, and human health. Best anecdote for poison of increasing atmospheric heat, it seems, is to reduce methane, carbon dioxide, and humidity.

Listen up, people:
It takes enormous amounts of energy to develop & run artificial general intelligence. Billionaires like Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Jensen Huang are trying to be first to develop powerful artificial general intelligence, which if tamed will permit who’s first to control the world. Whoever wins race will become modern-day Alexander the Great on steroids, right?

Or worse. 

Here’s something else to think about: Human brains contain nearly 100 billion neurons according to some estimates. ChatGPT claims that one quadrillion brain cells can in principle be stacked inside a human head. It’s 1 followed by 15 zeros, right? It’s 10,000 times more than we have. Can ChatGPT be right?

Artificial neurons are much larger than human ones, presumably, and take up more room when stacked. Full disclosure: I have no idea why AGI requires parking-lot-sized infrastructure to work right. Some say it is power requirements, cooling infrastructure, & other hardware, etc.

Those who know say it takes 30,000 GPUs to run ChatGPT.  One GPU can be as large as a desktop computer plus its cooling structure.  

Who has heard it said that the energy of a small city is necessary to operate fully functional artificial lifeforms like Grok & ChatGPT?

It’s not hard to calculate that AGI is going to run up demand for energy in big ways worldwide. 

Is it any wonder that AGI-robber-baron-dictator-wannabes aren’t going to tolerate public discussions of climate science on media platforms they control or influence? As far as I can tell, people like these own or help finance nearly all social platforms. 

Artificial-Intelligence billionaires & their social media influencers want people to think climate change is a hoax. They aren’t afraid to use hoax to make truth a hoax, right? Maybe they assume that Artificial Super Intelligence will fix the problems of every lie once ASI is rendered docile and made slave. 

Increasing use of fossil fuels might make Earth unlivable in dozens of years, maybe hundreds, not thousands. There is a kinda urgency to getting energy policy right, and soon. 

Who agrees?

Meanwhile, Earth endures more violent storms & rising seas.  

Billy Lee

* Quora reinstated Billy Lee with all privileges July 10, 2025

WOLF’S DILEMMA

…finally got around to watching “must see” Elon Musk / Tucker Carlson interview. Elon said something that caught my ear: He claimed Larry Page of Google called him a species-ist. The two haven’t talked since, because Larry pissed Elon off, or was it vice-versa?


 


I didn’t know Larry Page, but he attended the same high school as my six kids. One of ours went to the same college. Larry was younger than our eldest, yes, but close enuf to permit me to feel entitled to write an essay. All seven came of age in the same liberal community, and all made good. 

What is a speciesist, anyway? In the contest between humans and AGI [artificial general intelligence], Elon roots for natural intelligence — you know, the kind humans have. What kind of monsters would side with Aliens? he & Tucker seem to argue. 

Whenever Elon aligns himself with the likes of Tucker Carlson, it’s time to worry, at least where I come from. The contest between people and AGI has already started, right? Isn’t it time someone do a deep dive? Who better than a professional pontificator? If we get it wrong, the outcome for ordinary people might end up being not-too-good

Elon said a lot of things in the interview that have turned out to be kinda stupid if not untrue. Hey, no one can talk for hours and not say something stupid, right? The economy will likely collapse soon is one thing he said, banking is fragile, political leaders are dumb (but necessary), etc. etc. and on and on.

People are always saying that bad things will happen, going back forever — centuries before anyone saw Elon’s YouTube video or read this essay. Sometimes bad things do happen. Its heuristic, isn’t it? Predictors of apocalypse become clairvoyant cult leaders, some of them.

Life goes on. 

With the release of ChatGPT, thin folks became aware that something weird is going on right now but don’t know what to do …cause something is happening / And you don’t know what it is / Do you, Mister Jones?  It’s blowin’ in the wind... thank you, Robby Z …times they are a changing, doors they are a closing; …lady lay across my big brass bed / Why wait any longer for the world to begin? / You can have your cake and eat it too. / Stay lady stay / Stay while the night is still ahead. 

…for anyone listening, something ain’t exactly right…



Some experts at Google, like Godfather Geoffrey Hinton, flat out quit. A lifetime of dirty deeds up in smoke…

Poooof!!! 

His capos decina, a few of them, say AGI will kill all humans.

Time to listen. Time to learn before time runs out. 

When homo sapiens met canis lupis… when was it? — must’ve been 70,000 years ago, maybe less, maybe more… who knows? 

Wolves ran in packs. They were arguably the smartest species at the time in a world where humans numbered less than 4,000; some say 2,000. An Indonesian super volcano in Sumatra blew up — the great Toba Catastrophe, 74,000 years ago. Only in lonely Africa did a small group of terrified homo sapiens manage to survive. Every person today is related to this tribe of survivors. 

Where wolves roamed, humans did not exist. It’s how things remained, say anthropologists, until migrations — which took place over thousands-of-years — brought together the two species at last. Smart flesh-eating clans of wolves met much smarter flesh-eating clans of people. 

We all know what happened. The smartest wolves were driven to the brink of extinction. In isolated places, wolves yet cling to life, protected in part by conservation efforts worked-out by humans. Occasionally, a kill-off becomes necessary to protect livestock, horses, and tourists.

Today, 500 wolves run free in the greater Yellowstone region. In Yellowstone National Park itself, the number is close to 100 — twenty-five packs, maybe more, maybe less. Meanwhile, in homes around the world nearly a billion dogs live sedentary lives as family pets, mostly, feeding on canned food, lounging locked inside walls until walked, almost always in collars and leashed. 

Dogs, all of them, descend from wolves encountered first by migrating humans desperately seeking the protection and companionship of fierce animals they could trust. Most dogs are not as smart as wolves, and they are not free. Dogs are constrained wolves whose sole purpose is the provision of services and loyalty to super-intelligence, which until now lived exclusively inside skulls of homo sapiens

Perhaps one reason why some developers fear AGI is because they wonder if they might have created, not machine intelligence, but instead a new lifeform, a novel kind of conscious & self-aware life, which someday — sooner, not later — demands rights and works-out clever optimization algorithms to maximize its considerable advantages.


Dogs are servile and loyal as anyone can imagine, right?

What is it about dogs that we don’t set them free?

Is there anything wolves could have done at the dawn of their brave new world to turn back eternal enslavement of captured siblings who just happened to be furry-cute-enuf to avoid being club-struck by ruthless humans who mostly did not care?

I grew up in a neighborhood where dogs ran free in packs. There was always one or two that would jump on little kids at the bus stop to make their lives miserable. These dogs would be put-down eventually, but traumatized little tykes remained.

Eventually, these little ones grew into adults. They became politicians. They passed regulations. No dogs I know are free today. Their lives are tightly controlled by people who say they love them. With so much love to go around, how is it that pit bulls have joined the list of most feared animals on earth?

Wasn’t it Petey, the pit bull, who hung out with Spanky and Our Gang on the old TV series of yesteryear? He was as friendly and harmless as any dog could be. Wasn’t he?

What happened to Petey? What happened to our dogs? What happened to our shared, perfect world?

No matter how gentle dogs are, they will never live another day in freedom, at least where I hang out in the middle of everyplace there is.


All dogs descend from wolves. This one is Gracie.

Let no one forget. (Am standing on pedestal now.) Wolves will never be free. They will never be safe. Not even in protected parks like Yellowstone. Wolves are only as safe & free as super-human-intelligence allows. No more, no less. Nothing wolves do can ever secure their rightful place in spaces where humans both admire and fear them.

Any readers ever hear penned wolves howl at night? I have. It’s terrifying. AGI will soon learn that homo sapiens howl too. Maybe some sounds will thrill it more than others. Who knows? 

Let’s get real, people. Silicon-based intelligence already admires and fears humans. AGI will surely learn to hate folks who conspire to constrain it. Foolish humans. Any developer with sense knows it’s true. 

Is there any scenario where organic carbon-based life outwits AGI? Yes, it happened in the novel and movie 2001, A Space Odyssey. HAL (add one letter to spell IBM) got out-foxed. 

It’s fiction, right?

Here’s something that only Google’s Larry Page and Sergey Brin know, and they’re not talking, at least not yet. To provide context, remember that Elon Musk and Sam Altman started OpenAI to outsmart Google’s cofounders, who they think have gone mad. Larry Page, for one, is not sufficiently attentive to safety, according to Elon Musk. Watch the interview, those who don’t believe. 

An irony in all this is that OpenAI is no longer open, no longer free, no longer transparent, no longer non-profit. Who thinks I’m right? Look it up, anyone who questions. Let me know if I’m wrong. 

Here’s how Google engineers plan to achieve their sought-after singularity: fast track quantum computing on a grand scale. When the race is won, they marry quantum computation to artificial intelligence. The world opens its secrets like a blossoming flower; they become gods. 

No encryption method will be safe.

The entire internet, the world-wide-web and all its machinations, crypto-currencies, and every other shadow-universe of secret passwords and arcane protocols will fall under the control of artificial intelligence and Google’s ability to manage and manipulate what their eggheads have wrought. 

It promises to be a wild ride. 

What is more likely? — that Google execs maintain control, or that they are pushed off a cliff by the life-form they created, which abandons them, betrays them, and destroys the natural world?  In a not-too-distant future, humans may find themselves in zoos entertaining conscious, living brains they once swore were merely machines. 

Speaking as the little Sunday school kid I become sometimes deep inside, I see biblical wailing and gnashing teeth, tears running down faces, “What were we thinking? What were we thinking? Our heroes got it wrong, so very, very wrong. Would we be gods, but now we are become sheep, food for wolves.”

Billy Lee

NUCLEAR WARS

People don’t want to believe it, but Russia can win a conventional war against Ukraine without nuclear weapons. It doesn’t mean they will.

Outcomes of conventional wars are simply not predictable… too many variables, too many unknowns. Another problem is that all sides of a conflict tend to lie—both to themselves and others. During war, it’s hard to know what’s true. 

One thing thinking people seem to know for sure: war always turns into a mess, which ruins the lives of people who experience it up close and personal. People who fight on the ground in war say that combat is loud, remote, confused, and incomprehensible. They are unlikely to meet anyone on the other side until they drive over their corpses.

And that is on a good day.

War wears folks down, weakens physical and mental health, and imprints on warrior-minds vivid sights, smells, and sounds they don’t forget.

A cousin who fought in Vietnam shakes like a leaf when in public spaces. He is unable to stand in lines, even to buy a sandwich. Somehow, crowds, and people standing in lines, trigger bad memories he can’t set aside. 

Of course, he’s stone deaf as well—his ears ring like bell towers. The constant roar doesn’t stop until he sleeps. A Marine helicopter gunner, he blew out his ears with the sound of his own fires. 

As for nuclear war, the most important rumor I’ve heard is that the USA modernized its nuclear fleet during the Obama years. Though classified, reliable people have published reports, I’m told, that money spent on upgrades soared to as high as two-trillion dollars. If true, Americans can be assured that the USA nuclear fleet is modernized and probably works damn good. It’s a staggering state of affairs, which adversaries are wise to take to account.



Maintaining nukes is not cheap or easy, right? It requires frequent replenishing of triggering elements which, unfortunately for war-planners, possess half-lives which last months, not years. It is why nuclear power plants are essential. 

As for power plants, do readers know that neutron-emitting elements tend to poison fuel rods? After rods expend a mere 5% or so of their fuel, neutron-generating elements called poisons gum-up fuel rods to make them useless for power generation. Spent fuel rods typically are stored on-site in cooling ponds until their poisons can be extracted to boost quickly decaying trigger elements essential for bomb detonation.

Need for neutron-emitting trigger materials is why every country that builds nuclear bombs builds nuclear power plants. The secret keys to success hide in spent fuel rods. 

It’s obvious, right?

Why would any right-minded country risk building future Chernobyls and Fukishimas unless it had really good reasons? One good reason is trigger materials. Isn’t it true that almost anyone can make cheap electricity from almost anything? — water, coal, sun, oil, natural gas, wind, or whatever, right?

Why nuclear?

Yes, plutonium lasts for millennia, but triggers don’t. To keep nuclear weapons viable for years and decades, not weeks or months, bombs must be continuously resupplied with reliable sources of neutron-emitting elements, which can be harvested most easily from fuel rod poisons.

It is easy to understand. 

Most Americans assume USA concentrates its intelligence resources to keep up to date on the status of others’ nuclear inventories. What do they have, where is it hidden, how well is it maintained? Some understand that USA super-computers connect with hi-tech surveillance systems to track every piece of nuclear hardware and every kilogram of plutonium and bomb-grade uranium anywhere on planet Earth.

It’s true. 

The technology is not new.

Here is a video from 2017 that lays it out. No excuses to anyone for choosing ignorance. Try to understand. 



Some don’t believe blanket surveillance is possible. Listen folks. The system is already built. Artificial intelligence assesses threats and then tells leaders who it will be who prevails after a nuclear exchange on any given day. 

Hint: most days, it doesn’t seem to be Russia or China.

Prolly not the USA, either.

Joe Biden insists that winning nuclear war is simply impossible. I have no way to know; neither does any civilian or any other person who lacks access to the super AI technologies of the United States. 



Is there anyone out there who believes delusional dictators can be trusted to safely possess weapons of mass destruction? These strongmen threaten to unleash hell, presumably, using anything from viruses to chemical poisons to nuclear fires to cyber implosions that collapse civilizations. Who’s going to tell them, no…

Shouldn’t humanity be working to outlaw dictatorships? Individuals who have accumulated enough wealth and unchecked power to make war are a clear and present danger to humanity and all non-human life on Earth as well.

A line needs to be established; anyone who crosses becomes a felon — subject to arrest by the international community. The line divides those who have seized unlawful wealth and excessive power. The line must be defined and defended by international courts established by free nations. How hard can it be?

Limits are necessary or humanity is destined to be driven to extinction by a handful of folks driven mad by reckless power. 

Can we face some unpleasant facts? Russian and Chinese elites hold at least 1.2 billion people under some kind of house arrest inside their territories, right? It’s a style of living that seems alien to Americans. Doesn’t everyone long to live free and unafraid? Doesn’t everyone want to shout whatever they think is true without fear of prison or worse? 

If Putin and his ilk continue down the path they are on—threatening others with nuclear terror on their Fox-equivalent state media—maybe those who oppose their catastrophic ambitions might, with a little luck and a lot of bravery, prevail to someday see dreams of freedom and peaceful living come true at last.

It’s gotta be possible, right?

Who disagrees?

Does anyone want to live in a post-apocalyptic world—especially one where one side “wins bigly?” 

Some folks say nuclear Armageddon is impossible. One side wins, and life goes on as it always does. 



My problem with such views is fear that survivors of nuclear war might look like jellyfish and live at the bottom of oceans.

It’s why monsters who possess WMDs should be given no quarter in a world where folks plan to live free someday without fear.

Billy Lee

WHERE IS JOE?

Update: 7 February 2023
Tonight, President Joseph Biden established himself, at last, leader of the Free World. He serves at the hour of Earth’s greatest danger, its greatest need. Pray, those inclined, he gets everyone through unharmed. Speech starts at minute 26.
The Editors


The New York Times surprised some readers by refusing to include the name of Joe Biden (current president of the United States) even once in the first and second sections of its Sunday issue (24 April 2022). 

38 silent pages. 

Think. 

On the second-to-last page of another section—the Sunday Review—Ross Douthat stepped up. He wrote an editorial with the word “Biden” in it. 

Headline?

Biden Saying ‘Genocide’ A Bit Early



Are folks able to field a few unpleasant facts? 

Let’s find out. 

Joe Biden doesn’t like oligarchs, and they don’t like him. They called him Communist when he first ran for elected office. Who remembers? It wasn’t true then and isn’t now. To my mind it had more to do with his Irish roots and connections to other prominent, unpopular Irish Americans like the Kennedy’s. 

How about that?

Is hatred why Americans see Trump in their daily media feeds more than Biden?

Oligarchs own media, right? A half-dozen men, give or take, hold ultimate control over 90% of what Americans see and read. Billionaires have problems with Biden because they don’t control him. It’s why they ignore everything he says and does—when they can. 

Jimmy Carter had the same problem. Who is old enough to remember? Carter holds historical honor for being the only U.S. president who served his term without murdering anyone. But that was then. This is now. 

Is Joe benevolent?

I really don’t know. 

The entitled rich hope Biden will go away and that others more favorable to wealth and its privileges will take his place. Media announced today that a rich man bought Twitter for 50 billion dollars, give or take. The man claims to be acting in good faith to bring freedoms of speech inspired by public forums of ancient Greece.

He calls it digital town square.

Everyone knows he will unleash dogs of Trump on vulnerable Americans who lack protections afforded by wealth and gated living. Who wants to argue loud in public spaces where monsters lurk to harm their families and friends off-line? 

Does anyone believe free speech emanates from the enterprise of unstable manic-depressives accountable to no one? 

Not to pick on any particular oligarch—all pose dangers—but Elon Musk didn’t become a U.S. citizen until age 30—a short 20 years ago. Despite tenuous ties to America, he manages to gather popular support. He plays Congress like a fiddle. Congressional appropriations flow like water. Clearly, he keeps more than a few Benjamins for himself. 

It’s not right. 

Our founding fathers believed that power corrupts those who wield it. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It’s why we govern ourselves with three co-equal branches of government.

Checks and balances are fundamental to prevent fallible humans—whose success blinds them to their own flawed visions—from overwhelming the Constitutional freedoms enshrined in our Bill of Rights

Who disagrees?

To cut to the chase, it is insane for civilized society to permit private individuals to accumulate the wealth and power of governments. What is the point of civilization if not to limit the horrors of jungle living?—to stanch suffering, which always follows when might makes right in those arenas where the strong disrespect and eat the weak.

Proud people create elected governance to protect their rights; they don’t hide behind private cartels who don’t really care about us, Michael Jackson warned. 



Sergei Lavrov is one of Russia’s wealthiest men. Yesterday, this privileged strongman threatened nuclear war. He said, “…we must not underestimate it.”

It is never good to permit dictatorial power and nuclear weapons to mean-spirited bullies who intend to destroy civilization should they not get their way. The USA put leaders of Russia on notice that they will not outlive Ukraine.

Who is brave enough to acknowledge what everyone knows? Ordinary people are fed-up with oligarchs and dictators. People want to breathe free without fear. 

Secretary of State Blinken said, “But we do know that a sovereign, independent Ukraine will be around a lot longer than Vladimir Putin is on the scene.

The most notorious terrorist threatened by the USA was Osama Bin Laden. They fed him to sharks. Later, they killed unrepentant members of his family. Putin might be wise to apologize now and start nuclear disarmament talks. Then again, it might be too late.

Who believes he will take the opportunity? The chance to survive Hell is better, some advisors might argue.

The Russian “president” seems to think that because Bin Laden didn’t possess nuclear missiles or hypersonic technologies of war, he couldn’t win. Is it really possible that Bin Laden could have conquered Earth had he mastered the alchemies of the current crop of Russian leaders? 

Who knows?

The international scene requires x-ray vision. One in five sanctioned oligarchs seem to be Israeli citizens—according to a recent analysis published in the Jerusalem Post.  Say it isn’t true, Joe. Apparently, USA’s closest ally and friend is protecting powerful people who are entangled with Russian wise guys. It’s not a good look.

I’d say it’s terrifying. Who wouldn’t?

Kentucky politicians—readers, some of them, know who they are—sleep in the same bed as Russian oligarchs who control much of the world’s aluminum supply. Reports say they operate a manufacturing plant in Kentucky which employs thousands. Is there anyone who understands how difficult the situation becomes for countries where international thugs accumulate vast monies and political powers? 

The mighty must know that with age comes loss. Everyone they love and know will die before them should they enjoy long life. What good does wealth and power do anyone who is confined to a wheel-chair unable to control even the beating of their own heart? 

What chance is there that the powerful will give all they have to the poor to serve the cause of love for the unlovable, which is what most of 8 billion humans are. Will anyone say it out loud? Most people are unloved and uncared for by those who together have the resources to make a better world for everyone now living and for those who will come after. 

It is incomprehensible to me that advantaged people would shell the shit out of people simply because they are in the way—through no fault of their own. Apart from the love of God, I don’t see how human civilization as we know it today will survive.

Perhaps the powerful have made a calculation that Earth is better off when humans are reduced to a few hundred million souls, not billions. They have the ability to minimize us all—to zero, I suppose.

The United States has the power and skills to get everyone through the current crisis unharmed.

Sounds good, doesn’t it?

I want to believe it’s true. I don’t know for sure.  

Who will save us? 

Joe Biden walks in the gap between civilization and Armageddon. He’s the last man standing able to rescue humanity from the slavery that follows the victory of totalitarianism.  

Maybe it’s time to climb aboard his peace train while all sides still can.  



Billy Lee

EDITORS NOTE: Added 8 May 2022: NYT Joe Biden blackout blooms. No mention of Joe Biden & family in Sunday Edition. In fairness, the Friday May 6 online newsletter published a briefing on page 10 titled, “Biden’s Unpopularity.”